Looking ahead to 2023

I am confident that when historians look back on 2022, they will see a fragile global culture and society. The New Yorker magazine pointed out that after a certain point, the sensation of an emergency feels like the wind and rain – part of a regular weather pattern. As an emotional coping mechanism, ironic resignation can be helpful, but you're still cold and damp when caught in bad weather. As the foul weather blows, plenty of people are looking for ways to provide umbrellas, raincoats, and rubber boots. I am trying to be helpful, and I thought I would kick off the first blog of the new year after my holiday sabbatical with my annual predictions for the year ahead.,

Welcome to Gridlock –

If you thought politics and government were weird in 2022, wait until the new year. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives is a razor-thin four seats which means we will see how well the Republican caucus can act united. It is not some tiny feet because a defection will give Democratic legislators a victory. It will also amplify the members of Congress who are good at attracting attention instead of getting things done. 

It also means that we will have a divided legislature between the House and Senate, so for a change, the House will become a place where legislation will go to die instead of the Senate. If you dislike Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, you will grind your teeth watching Lauren Boebert with subpoena power and a speed dial to conservative media. Expect plenty of shouting, investigations, and futile gestures to come out of this Congress. In the meantime, events on the ground will move faster than the government.

An AI for everyone –

Computers and neural networks are making logarithmic progress. The news about chat GPT is impressive. It can have conversations for typical customer service interactions, write basic python code, and write essays for lazy college students. It is great news for computer scientists, but it raises many questions. In his book "The Precipice," Toby Ord points out that artificial intelligence, without proper regulation or understanding, might threaten human survival by treating humans as a threat to its existence. It feels like the classic science fiction movie "Colossus: The Forbin Project." I share many of Ord's concerns but am more worried about what this will do to the business world and education. 

Teachers are in an escalating war with students who want to use Chat GPT to create essays and do research. So far, experienced teachers have pointed out that Chat GPT only does "C" level work, but the technology will improve, giving students less incentive to write and do their research. I suspect it will negatively impact the average person's writing ability, making it harder for employers to find and hire people who understand the written and spoken word. It will be a net minus for society.

From a business perspective, employers will need fewer white-collar workers to do routine work for their businesses. Now an AI can review insurance claims or process accounts receivable. It is an easy decision for the business person because AI does not get sick, gossip around the office, or form labor unions. What happens to the workers displaced by this technical advance? The answers are unclear, but if you are good at math and technology, I recommend you learn more about neural networking and artificial intelligence because those who excel at those skills will make plenty of money.

Fediverse – Yes, Please

When Elon Musk purchased Twitter, he took over in famous fashion walking into the offices with a sink. He then tweeted, "Let that sink in!" Since that moment, the company has been on a strange and ugly journey to become profitable. As a casual Twitter user, I did not feel safe or welcome under the new management, so I quit. I then joined Mastodon, and while smaller, it seems like a more pleasant community online. It is also part of a more extensive network of services known as the "Fediverse."

This system is unique because it treats social media, podcasting, video, and pictures like e-mail. All you need to do is build a server, and you are in business, and the systems are interoperable. People enjoy social media and connecting with others. Mastodon and other Fediverse services are an alternative to the extensive technology services with their inherent problems with harassment and privacy. I am still trying to decide about the blogging tools, but I hope that changes in 2023. Otherwise, consider me an early adopter and drop me a line at @ewisniowski@mastodon.sdf.org. 

Quick hits –

The Chicago White Sox will be in the MLB playoffs in 2023. The Chicago Bears will be a .500 team. My father and I will be first in line to see Dune part 2 at the theater. I am going to lose at least fifty pounds after weight loss surgery. I will continue to help others in the business community from getting cold and wet with the continuing storms that blow through the global economy. Finally, the new year will be a wild ride, and I look forward to sharing it with you.

Happy New Year, and until next time.