Navigating the Fog of Uncertainty

The natural state of projects is fog.

Recently, I have been focusing on the basics of agile.  Master those simple skills and rituals and it will make you a better coach and scrum master.  Today, I want to focus on something which is your constant companion in business: uncertainty.  The ability to deal with uncertainty, mitigate risk, and address the unknown are essential business skills. 

When project managers discuss uncertainty in a project, they are all the unknown factors that crop up.  There is no right way to understand all the nuances of a project until you begin work and experience them.  Plans are helpful, but they often rely on assumptions that do not exist.  A plan usually takes for granted the people doing the work are all the same and have the same training and experience.  A plan also assumes that conditions will not change throughout the project.  When confronted with the realities and nuances of a project, the plan often shifts or is discarded.  

It is why project people have come up with the term “cone of uncertainty.”  At the beginning of a project, the estimate of time can vary significantly.  If you are fortunate, completing the work may take a fraction of the time allotted.  Often, a project will run over time and budget because the team did not know the hidden factors involved in completing the effort.  As the team continues to work with the project, the uncertainty narrows, known as a cone.  As time goes on, the team has a more realistic understanding of what needs to get done to finish the work.   

It helps understand the cone of uncertainty because it provides a helpful guide for people outside of the project to understand what is going on inside.   Often the situation is more confusing, and I use the term “fog of uncertainty.”  When the problem is more confusing, and people are fumbling around looking for a horizon or clear direction.  Like backpackers lost in the fog, they are stumbling over the ground, walking in circles, and easily distracted by strange sights and sounds.  As a business leader, you will face these situations.  

When in a fog of uncertainty, the team will fight over which direction to take.  Each stumble could escalate into a major crisis.  Finally, deep anxiety will take hold, and it will undermine the effectiveness of everyone.  It is at this point that a project fails because its goals are most concealed. 

Just like hikers in the wilderness, there are some techniques you can use to avoid getting lost.  One of these methods is to rely on a compass to maintain a direction.  In a corporate environment, executives fill this role pointing people in the correct direction and providing landmarks for people to follow.  An executive cannot banish the fog, but they can provide help when necessary.  Next, the team can do rapid inspections and make sure they are not going in circles.  The developers can rely on known facts and then use them to build out where they go.  It is why database models and UML diagrams are helpful because they behave like maps for the team.  Small common-sense tricks and experience can make uncertainty manageable.  

As the team progresses, uncertainty dissipates.  When the path becomes more evident, the team can move faster toward its destination.  The skills they use to navigate through the fog are still helpful and will further create certainty on the project.  I find these techniques work well with a no-estimates approach or with story points. 

So to navigate the fog of uncertainty, use the tools of agile to find your way.  Do rapid inspections of work and adapt to changing conditions.  Use executives or clients to provide direction and guidance.  Finally, clear landmarks like UML or Data maps can help make life easier for the team.  Being stuck in fog is awful, but you will reach your destination by taking a few simple steps and careful navigation.  

Until next time.