Agile 2018

Agile 2018
Speaking at Agile 2018

Monday, January 2, 2017

Looking back and forward - 2017

After 2016, I think we
all need a tall glass of wine
Technology is a dynamic industry.  One moment you can be on top of the world and the next you are like Nokia unable to adapt to market conditions.  This week I am going to take a look at some of my predictions from last year and see how accurate I was and look ahead to 2017.

Looking back, it is clear that when I paid attention to technology and trends in the industry, my predictions were accurate.  Apple computer did have a rough year with tax issues from the European Union and sales which dipped for the first time in years.  Microsoft is growing its business with the Azure cloud services and a full embrace of Linux.  It also has surprising sales of its Surface Pro 4.  They are still going to founder in the phone market, but they are ruling in the desktop and enterprise realm.  My prediction that the Scrum Alliance was going to have some growing pains came to fruition.

When I looked at politics in 2016, I was wrong.  I predicted that election season would be a draw with the Democrats retaining the Presidency while the Republicans would keep the House of Representatives and lose the Senate.  Instead, Democrats made slight gains in the House and Senate while losing the White House by the statistical margin of error in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.  President Trump's mandate is about 100,000 votes in three states which are .08% of the total votes cast.  Please read this great article with lots of wonky footnotes on how this happened from Vox.  Republicans have complete control of all three branches of government since 1929 in spite of their razor-thin margins of victory.

As a blogger and pundit, I need to take responsibility for when my predictions are correct and when I get them wrong.  I also should learn from my mistakes and extrapolate what I need to do to make better predictions.  Here is what I expect in the coming year.

Big Fight over Net Neutrality.  

There are already rumblings in the new Trump administration that net-neutrality is going to open to discussion.  Changing the current net-neutrality rules will be a gold mine for cellular phone providers and cable companies; it will be bad for everyone else. The internet rose up in rebellion and forced members of Congress to drop support for a law which would have made pay to play access to the web law of the land.  This time around the fight is not going to be in Congress but in the FCC and it is going to be harder because political appointees are going to be much less susceptible to public pressure.

Deregulation a-go-go

Many Republicans have a love affair with Ayn Rand.  Now that Republicans control all three branches of government prepare for a full wave of deregulation in technology and business.  Overtime rules will be cut back.  Financial regulations will be revoked, and a worker in this economy is going to have a more difficult time.

Those are the only two big predictions I have for the new year.  The interesting thing about working in the technology world is that change is a big constant.  If you are not paying attention, then you are bound to be surprised by something.  I look forward to being along with you for the ride because 2017 is going to be a challenging year.

Until next time.