Monday, January 4, 2016

My predictions for 2016

Predictions for the new year
are best enjoyed with a glass of wine.
The holidays have ended and now it is time to get back to business in the New Year.  Last week, I discussed how I did with my predictions in 2015.  This week I would like to put myself out there for my predictions for 2016.

Apple stumbles – 

Apple has had a string of hits with consumer technology over the last fifteen years.  From the iPod to the current smart watch trend, Apple has been making lots of money and looking like harbinger of future tech.  I think they are due for an embarrassing product release or major technical failure on par with its spat with Google Maps.  I say this because many of the technical press are noticing changes in the company’s commitment to innovation.  Instead of trying to wow customers, it looks like they are settling on being just good enough.  This is a recipe for failure and once they have a public and humiliating failure, I get the feeling the gang from Cupertino are not going to let it happen again.

Microsoft Stands tall –

The release of Windows 10 has been a very pleasant surprise with a clean interface which is smart enough to know the difference between tablet, laptop, and desktop computing.  It plays nice with most of my peripherals and I look forward to its expanding application environment.  I think that the Surface Pro 4 is a superior computer to anything from Apple.  It is also encouraging to see how Microsoft has embraced the software craftsmanship movement with Moq testing, SOLID principles and open source development with the release of Visual Studio 2015.  I think that 2016 is going to be a great year for the gang at Redmond.

Disruption in the Scrum Alliance –

The Scrum Alliance is the umbrella organization for professional certification with in the agile community.  It has been going through several changes on the board of directors and as I have attempted to earn certification, I have received a front row seat for many of the disputes and family squabbles that have gone on in the organization.

I believe that these are the growing pains of an organization which is trying to provide companies with a competent and experienced work force of professionals who are want to spread the word about Agile and Scrum.  It is not pretty but neither was the protestant reformation and western civilization would not be what it is today without it.  Since business is relying on creative workers more, they are going to need to embrace Agile and Scrum in order to make those creative workers more successful.  The Scrum Alliance is leading that change for the better but they are also trying to practice what they preach.  Change and disruption are not easy and I think that Scrum Alliance will get through it.

Politics and Tech –

Finally, I do not like to get political on my blog but with 2016 being an election year I will make an exception.  I think that Carly Fiorina will not become the republican nominee for president and even if she does, I will do everything in my power to make sure she does not win the general election.  I despise her with the same intensity that Hunter S. Thompson hated Richard Nixon.  She is the representation of everything I have spent my entire career working against.  What she did to Hewlett-Packard when she was CEO was unforgivable and should be an object lesson of what NOT to do in executive leadership.

The Congress will continue to be Republican and the White House will remain Democratic but only barely after a long, angry, and hysterical election season.  I suspect the reason why is that technology used by both sides to solidify the structural advantages each party has.

Those are my predictions.  What are yours?  I would love to know what you think.

Until next time.